I had a client ask me the other day if the "Silver Tsunami" was going to hit Breckenridge and Summit County? Here's my response;
This is an excellent question, glad you asked. The Silver Tsunami has been talked about for a long time. Here's an article from 2019;
https://www.zillow.com/research/silver-tsunami-inventory-boomers-24933/
It's also not unique to CO. AI will tell you;
The demographic shift known as the "Silver Tsunami" affects all 50 states. Because it is driven by the aging of the vast Baby Boomer generation (born 1946–1964) reaching 65 and older, every single U.S. state is experiencing a significant increase in its senior population.
While the phenomenon is national, its impact varies significantly depending on the region:
Highest Concentration: States like Maine (23.5%), Vermont (22.9%), West Virginia (21.9%), and Florida (21.8%) have the highest proportion of older residents.
Fastest Growth: Over the past decade, states like Alaska, Idaho, Colorado, and Nevada experienced the highest growth rates (over 50%) in their 65-and-older populations.
Housing Impact: Real estate studies by research groups like Zillow show that metro areas in retirement hubs (e.g., Florida, Arizona) and Rust Belt regions will see the largest wave of homes hitting the market as boomers downsize or vacate properties.
Another Perspective from an area lender;
https://www.coloradolendingteam.com/will-a-silver-tsunami-reshape-the-housing-market/
As this demographic ages, it’s predicted that many will downsize, potentially flooding the market with larger homes. This could, in theory, tilt the supply-demand balance and reshape market dynamics.
Will this be a big shift in real estate? It’s likely to be more of a ripple than a wave.
The Impact on Housing
Despite the buzz, the silver tsunami hasn’t crashed onto the real estate scene as predicted. Insights from HousingWire suggest that the impact of this demographic shift remains largely unrealized, with little expectation of it materializing in the near future.
One reason? A strong preference among baby boomers to age in place. AARP’s research reveals that a majority of seniors wish to remain in their current homes. This challenges the notion of a mass exodus from larger homes to smaller ones.
So I think it's an interesting topic affecting the housing market as a whole, including where you live, but I think it will have a smaller impact on our micromarket here in Summit County. Why? 1. We have a continuous demand for real estate that comes from all over the country. 2. We have a strong labor market that attracts younger worker continuously. When lotteries are held for new local housing units there are generally four applicants for every available unit. 3. Many longer term second homeowners and retirees are planning on passing their homes on as a legacy to their families. 4. Finally the top 10% of the country is thriving right now and the luxury market is the strongest segment of real estate by far. I believe that a surge in motivated selllers will, if anything, stimulate new demand.
Thanks for asking,